The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has long maintained that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China, and that there is only one Chinese state, with Beijing as its sole legitimate government. Despite having two separate governments and operating as two independent states since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949, Beijing has reiterated in recent years that ‘uniting’ the island with the rest of China remains a key priority.
In a call between US President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping earlier this week, Xi described Taiwan as ‘the single most important issue’ in bilateral relations between the two countries, after the US agreed to an arms deal of over $11 billion with Taiwan in December of last year. While Beijing has repeatedly called for a ‘peaceful resolution’ to its dispute with Taiwan, China’s ‘anti-secession law’ allows for Beijing to resort to ‘non-peaceful means’ if peaceful efforts do not succeed.
Days after the announcement of the U.S arms deal to Taiwan, Beijing conducted one of its largest military drills in the South China Sea, almost completely surrounding the island of Taiwan. China called the exercise a ‘stern warning’ both to Taiwan and ‘external interference’ forces. The drills come as part of a broader trend of heightened escalation in recent years, as observers have noted increasing numbers of Chinese fighter jets and drones in the Taiwan strait moving closer to the island. This has led observers and diplomats to question whether these are in fact military exercises, or rehearsals for invasion.
A report released by the US Pentagon last year alleged that China is readying its military to be capable of invading the island by 2027, although President Trump has claimed that, in a phone call between the two leaders, Xi Jinping assured him that China will not invade Taiwan while he remains President. Despite Trump’s claims, observers have noted consistent yearly jumps in China’s military budget and record stockpiling of gold, which can be used to mitigate the effect of financial sanctions, as potential indicators that Beijing may be nearing ramping up preparations for a potential invasion.
A recent shake-up in China’s government may provide some clues to Beijing’s intentions. Last month, China’s top-ranking general Zhang Youxia was purged from the military, as part of broader efforts to maintain ideological unity and personal loyalty to Xi Jinping. This would allow Xi a free hand to act in Taiwan as he pleases, although the reshuffling would suggest that at present, Xi is not convinced that his military is fully prepared for its aims of reunification.
There have also been concerns that the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the US in January may serve to embolden Beijing to take similarly unilateral actions in pursuit of its strategic goals. Many in Taiwan who were previously sceptical about the prospect of a military invasion became more concerned after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, amid a seemingly more dangerous and volatile global climate.
However, Taiwan’s President is planning a new $40 billion defence budget, including new missile defences, unmanned systems and long-range precision weapons, as part of his push to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2030. The plan, backed by the US, aims to bolster the island’s military deterrent against Beijing, and make a potential invasion as costly as possible. The US has maintained its military support of Taiwan throughout Trump’s second term, as part of its obligation to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act.
The potential implications of a military invasion of the island would likely have devastating consequences both for countries in the region and beyond. While it is unclear if the US would intervene directly, Japan’s new Prime Minister has stated that an invasion would present an ‘existential threat’ to the region, and that Japan would likely intervene. China has vowed to ‘crush’ attempts at foreign intervention.
The effects of open conflict between China and Taiwan would also be incredibly damaging to the global economy. The Taiwan strait is a key global shipping artery handling over one-fifth of global maritime trade, and Taiwan is also the world’s largest producer of semiconductors, which are key components of modern electrical systems including all modern military systems. If Western countries decide to enact financial sanctions on China in response, this could create large scale economic disruption as China is the world’s largest exporter and a key trading partner of many Western countries, including the US.
However, despite recent escalations, there is no clear indication that such an invasion will happen in the near future. Taiwan’s outsized importance in the semiconductor industry may prove to be a key factor in bolstering military support for the island in the event of an invasion. While China’s military has grown significantly in capability within the past decade, it is unlikely Beijing believes it is yet capable of succeeding in an invasion attempt if the US were to militarily intervene to defend Taiwan.
Taiwan’s upcoming 2028 election may prove a key determining factor in Beijing’s next moves. If current President Lai Ching-te wins another term for the ruling party, this may serve to embolden Beijing to take military action, as this would likely mean a policy of maintaining Taiwan’s de-facto independence. Taiwan’s largest opposition party on the other hand is more sympathetic to closer ties with China, and may pave the way for a form of peaceful resolution with Beijing. While Taiwan has never formally declared independence from China, any move to do so would also likely embolden Beijing to pursue military action. If the status quo continues, it remains unlikely that Beijing will pursue an invasion in the near future, due to the risk of foreign intervention and the devastating impact of disruption to global trade.
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