GeoPrism

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned in December 2025 that Russia could attack a NATO country within the next five years, and that Western countries must prepare for “the scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured”. While Moscow has denounced the comments as “hysteria” and claims that Russia has no plans for a wider war with Europe, Putin has also claimed that his country is ready “right now” if such a war were to take place. These escalating threats force a critical question: Is Russia Preparing for War with Europe?

Rutte’s comments have been echoed by leaders and military chiefs across Europe, who are calling for the ‘rearmament’ of European militaries, including increases in defence spending, to deter Russian aggression. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has transformed the country into a ‘war economy’, significantly increasing production of tanks, drones, and artillery pieces to continue replacing staggering losses in Ukraine. European leaders have noted that Russia’s factories are producing military equipment at a significantly faster rate than those of Western European countries, and it may take years of production and sizeable investment to achieve parity of production.

While most Western leaders do not anticipate a Russian military attack against NATO in the immediate future, Russia has been conducting ‘hybrid warfare’ against European countries for years, including arson attacks, sabotage of critical infrastructure, and cyber attacks. These incidents have risen sharply since the invasion of Ukraine, and demonstrate Russia’s increasing determination to disrupt and destabilise Western countries. The US Helsinki commission noted over 150 incidents of Russian sabotage between February 2022 and November 2024, including cyber attacks on pharmacies and public water facilities.

Russia has also shown that it is willing to stage direct military challenges and provocations to NATO countries along its western border. In September 2025, several Russian drones entered Polish airspace, leading to a closure of much of Poland’s airspace and a joint NATO response to neutralise the aircraft. While the drones were found to have been unarmed, the incident was likely orchestrated by Moscow to probe military defences, procedures, and observe the unity of NATO’s response. The incident led to a wide deployment of fighter jets and air defence systems to Poland from countries such as France, Sweden and the UK, and demonstrated NATO’s resolve and capability to defend its allies.

While Russia’s military capabilities are dwarfed by the combined might of NATO countries, Moscow’s strategic calculus relies on attempting to foster division and doubt between allied countries. Russian disinformation campaigns and sponsorship of political isolationism in Western countries is well documented, and seeks to give Russia a free hand to impose its will on European countries without needing to face an allied military response. US President Trump’s moves to reduce US troop numbers in European countries, calls for Europe to assume greater responsibility for its defence, and challenges to Danish sovereignty over Greenland, will likely embolden Moscow in further provocations against European countries.

Moscow is also aware that NATO countries do not all have the same determination to curb Russia’s imperial ambitions. NATO countries such as Turkey, Hungary and Slovakia have refused to participate in sanctions against Russia, leading to questions over their commitment to defend NATO countries in the event of an armed conflict with Russia. The rise of far-right parties across Europe, many of which are sympathetic to the Kremlin, may serve to further embolden Putin should he decide to instigate conflict with Europe.

The likelihood of a Russian military attack or incursion against NATO in the coming years will largely depend on the outcome of its ongoing invasion of Ukraine. While Russia has made little progress in the war in the past few years, a military victory in Ukraine would free large numbers of troops for redeployment in other theatres. Putin himself has stated that his ambitions go beyond Ukraine, comparing himself to Peter the Great and legitimising the conquest of territories formerly part of the Russian Empire. If Ukraine falls, Moscow will be more capable and determined to attempt to invade other countries along its border, such as the Baltic states, which were also former territories of Russia and contain sizeable Russian minority populations.

The likelihood of a Russian attack will also depend on whether or not Europe can successfully implement a plan of rearmament in the coming years, and create a credible, unified and independent deterrent to Moscow. While Russia’s military capacity grows, Europe’s larger economy and population allow it to match and exceed Russia’s military production, if the political will can be found to do so. Military expenditure of many European countries has already begun to increase dramatically, in line with NATO’s plan for member states to commit at least 5% of GDP annually on defence by 2035, which was agreed at the 2025 NATO summit in The Hague. The EU’s SAFE programme will also oversee significant investment into European defence that will bolster Europe’s deterrent capability.

Currently, Moscow does not appear to believe it is capable of defeating a combined NATO force. However, a Russian victory in Ukraine, coupled with consistent growth of military production and capability, as well as disunity and division among European states, could provide the Kremlin with the confidence to attempt another war of conquest in Europe. Russia’s economy will also be an important factor in determining its next moves in the coming years. As oil revenues plummet, and the effects of Western sanctions become more prominent, Moscow may find itself unable to maintain its current military production and struggle to replace losses in Ukraine if the war continues for several more years. Europe’s continued support of Ukraine, commitment to rearmament, and political unity will be key to deterring the Kremlin from further expansion into Europe.