On August 7, 2026, the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, creating a defensive alliance between the three countries. The agreement contains a collective security clause, meaning an armed attack on any party country will compel a collective response from all three. It is no coincidence that the agreement was drafted and signed amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, shortly after Iranian missiles rained down on military bases across the region in March, and as Israeli military operations in Lebanon and Syria continue.
Turkey is already a member of NATO, and when Iranian ballistic missiles were fired into Turkish airspace in March, NATO air defences intercepted them, with the help of a U.S Navy Destroyer and a Spanish Patriot battery. Unlike Turkey however, Saudi Arabia does not possess the defensive guarantees of NATO. When Iranian missiles targeted Saudi military bases, airports and refineries, Saudi forces themselves bore most of the immediate burden of intercepting Iranian missiles and drones over Saudi territory. The only notable exception was the help of a Greek-operated patriot battery, which intercepted and destroyed two ballistic missiles targeting Saudi oil refineries, and is stationed in the Saudi Kingdom under a separate bilateral agreement between Saudi Arabia and Greece.
The Mecca agreement therefore should provide direct strategic utility to Saudi Arabia, providing additional defensive infrastructure and stronger deterrence as the Iran conflict continues to heat up. Pakistan has already deployed 8,000 troops, fighter jets, drones and an air-defence system in Saudi Arabia under a previous mutual defence agreement signed between the two countries in 2025. Riyadh will seek to benefit from the protection of Turkey’s extensive and increasingly modernised armed forces, which include the second largest army in NATO and an expanding military footprint from the Mediterranean to the Horn of Africa.
For its part, Turkey will hope to leverage its closer ties with Saudi Arabia to gain preferential access to investment in energy and defence, access to export markets for its own defence exports, and greater strategic influence throughout the Gulf. Additionally, the agreement provides Turkey with more confidence and reassurance in the event of a clash with Israel, as relations between the two countries have become increasingly adversarial in recent years. In August, Israel conducted an air strike against an air base in Syria close to the Turkish border which they alleged was being prepared to host Turkish military equipment. While Ankara may not have faith in its western allies to take its side in the event of escalation with Israel, the Mecca agreement could add another layer of complication which may alter Israel’s calculations for its actions in the region.
While the agreement has not yet been ratified by Turkey’s Parliament, the spirit of the agreement and its obligations is already being put to the test. In September, just a month after the pact was signed into force, Houthi militants in Yemen carried out drone and ballistic missile strikes against the Saudi capital of Riyadh, as well as coastal oil and gas facilities, leading to retaliatory air strikes by the Saudi Air Force. Once again, Greek patriot batteries intercepted a number of Houthi missiles in the recent strikes, but so far no Turkish military aid has been forthcoming.
Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan stated shortly after the strikes that Turkey could help Saudi Arabia meet its ‘military needs’ under the pact, calling the strikes ‘very serious’ attacks on Saudi territorial integrity, but did not give details on what a potential Turkish response might look like. Following this statement, leaders of the three pact countries met in Riyadh for military talks. Should Turkey decide to conduct strikes against the Houthis, many in the Turkish government may be wary of the optics of their first decisive action under the pact being conducted against an Islamic group, given the deep religious rhetoric underpinning the pact.
Such action would also open up the possibility of retaliatory action by the Houthis against Turkish assets, particularly in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa, where Turkey has been working to consolidate its strategic presence. A senior member of the Houthis warned in an Iraqi interview that if Turkey or Pakistan were to become involved in the conflict, they would “strike them with an iron fist”. Turkey will also seek to balance its response with its relations with Iran, as the Houthis are widely regarded as an Iranian proxy group which receives material backing from Iran.
Military aid under the pact could however come in the form of defensive equipment – air defense systems, counter-drone technology and radar equipment would all be well received by Riyadh while Houthi ordnance continues to threaten the Saudi Kingdom’s cities and assets. The coming weeks and months may prove decisive in determining the direction of the Mecca Defence Pact and how significantly it may reshape the region.
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