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Has Libya Become a Permanently Fragmented State?
Since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Libya has been divided between two rival administrations. Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) controls Libya’s East, and the Government of National Unity (GNU) headed by Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh controls much of the Western coastline. Only the GNU is recognised by the…
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Are the Balkans Becoming China’s Gateway to the EU?
Over the past decade, Chinese investment and trade in the Balkan region of Europe has sharply increased, facilitating the construction of over a hundred major projects totalling tens of billions of Euros. This investment is part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which seeks to expand China’s economic and strategic…
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Can Cyprus be the key to ending Europe’s reliance on Russian gas?
As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine rages on, much of Europe still relies on Russian gas imports to meet demand, totalling around 13% of gas imports to EU countries. While the EU commits to finding alternatives to Russian gas, discoveries of sizeable natural gas reserves in Cyprus in recent years could…
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Has Armenia Effectively Ended Its Alliance with Russia?
Since 2020, Armenia’s relations with Russia have become increasingly fraught, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has signalled his desire to move the country out of Russia’s sphere of influence. Once Armenia’s closest ally, many Armenians felt a profound sense of betrayal and abandonment when Russia was largely absent and…
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How long can Russia sustain its war in Ukraine?
Since the invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, Russia has sustained enormous battlefield casualties, equipment losses, and economic damage. Despite this, the Kremlin has shown no sign of abandoning the war, and continues to send thousands of troops to the frontlines. The Russian government has taken a hard line in…
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Will peace last in post-Assad Syria?
In December 2024, Bashar al-Assad’s government was finally toppled after 13 years of armed conflict which devastated Syria. Ahmed al-Sharaa, the new President of Syria, has stated his intention to unify and rebuild the country. However, Syria remains fractured, with the Syrian Democratic Forces still governing much of North and…
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What is the EU’s SAFE programme, and which countries will benefit the most?
Amid the backdrop of Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine and heightened geopolitical tensions, the EU has accelerated efforts to bolster the defence of member states with the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) programme. Adopted by the Council of the European Union on May 27th 2025, SAFE has set aside €150…
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As public pressure grows over asylum seeker numbers, what are Starmer’s options?
Since the start of 2025, over 36,000 people have crossed the English channel on small boats this year, up from around 28,000 this time last year, many of them hoping to claim asylum in the UK. Pressure has been growing on Keir Starmer over the Labour government’s handling of the…